The wind of change

By S Jayasankaran, (Business times)26 march 08

Ghapur Salleh actually wanted to resign from Umno Sabah just before the 8 March 2008 general elections so that he could contest the election on a PKR ticket. Anwar Ibrahim, however, would not allow him to do so. Ghapur grumbled to his friends that all Anwar needed to do was to give the word and he, plus a few other close associates in Umno Sabah, would cross-over and contest the election under the PKR banner. Anwar, of course, had his reasons. He wanted Sabah and Sarawak to be the 'reserve team' in the event the opposition wins enough seats to form the federal government.
As it now stands, the opposition has won 82 seats in Parliament and all it needs is another 30 to give it a two-seat majority over Barisan Nasional. 30 seats would make the score 112:110, all that is needed for His Majesty to do what the Federal Constitution of Malaysia requires him to do. And what His Majesty the Agong would have to do would be to appoint a new Prime Minister from amongst any of the 222 Members of the House who, in His Majesty's opinion, commands the confidence of the majority of the Member of the House. It is certainly very 'loose' though clearly worded but the way it has been written gives enormous powers to His Majesty the Agong to interpret 'opinion', 'commands' and 'confidence' the way His Majesty sees it. Most important of all, though, is that His Majesty need not 'seek advice from the Prime Minister' but instead can exercise his 'own discretion' in arriving at 'his opinion'.
Isn't the English language just lovely? And that is what it all boils down to, so the legal eagles can just stay out of this whole thing and allow the English teachers to step in to help properly interpret what the Federal Constitution of Malaysia says -- which is written in the Queen's English anyway. And 'Queen' here refers to Elizabeth II and not Freddie Mercury who died of AIDS.
So, does Anwar have 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament safely tucked away? No, he does not have 30. Instead, he has thus far 38, the majority from Sabah and Sarawak. Did you not notice Anwar flying off to Sarawak the morning of 9 March and to Sabah the following day? And rest assured it was not to buy some Iban or Dayak hats. It was to conference with the Barisan Nasional leaders from these two East Malaysian states.
Abdullah Ahmad Badawi knew all this of course, as did his advisers on the fourth floor. However, instead of trying to win the hearts and minds of the East Malaysians, he antagonised them further when he offered the East Malaysian warlords just five Deputy Minister posts, and in very unimportant ministries on top of that.
Sabah and Sarawak brought in 54 Parliament seats to match the 86 from Peninsular Malaysia. Without these 54 Parliament seats from Sabah and Sarawak, Barisan Nasional would be having a mere four-seat majority over the opposition coalition of PKR, DAP and PAS -- while the popular votes garnered by Barisan Nasional would be less than half. It became slightly over half only when the Sabah and Sarawak votes were included.
20 of the 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament from Sarawak have agreed to cross-over to the opposition while 16 of the 24 from Sabah will follow suit if Sarawak first takes the plunge. To start the ball rolling, Anifah Aman, brother to the Sabah Chief Minister, rejected the offer for the post of Deputy Minister and with about half a dozen or so other Sabah warlords flew off to Melbourne to meet the other warlords from Sarawak. They have been there since last week; planning, plotting and scheming their moves, which they will make when the time is right. Rest assured Anifah would not act without the consent of his brother, Musa Aman.
They will of course not make their move now. They are waiting for May 2008. By midnight of 14 April 2008, Anwar will be eligible to contest the elections and probably Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim will resign his Bandar Tun Razak seat or Zulkilfi Nordin his Kulim seat. A by-election will then be called and Anwar will of course be that PKR candidate to contest the by-election. On 5 May 2008, Parliament will be convened with Anwar now a Member of Parliament. From 7 May 2008 onwards, 82 opposition Members of Parliament will be able to table a motion of no confidence against Abdullah, supported by no less than 38 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament, as it now stands. The 38 Members of Parliament from Barisan Nasional is of course the latest tally taken this morning. 7 May 2008 is still more than a month away and one day is a long time in politics, what more 40 days. So expect this 38 to grow further and it should not come as a surprise if the final tally is no longer just a simple majority but a resounding two-thirds majority. Will we see, therefore, Anwar finally taking office as the Sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia?
Nevertheless, while all this is going on, another candidate for the post of the Sixth Prime Minister of Malaysia is also moving very rapidly in the background. And this man is the resident of that very imposing White House-like abode along Langgak Golf.
Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has not been sleeping. He has been aggressively meeting hundreds of people from all over Malaysia. Even as you read this Tengku Razaleigh is hosting more than 100 Umno division and branch leaders to a sumptuous feast in his office cum home behind the United States Embassy.
Tengku Razaleigh is going a slightly different route though. While Anwar is working on a 'no confidence' vote in Parliament, Tengku Razaleigh is working on the 193 Umno divisions. And he, thus far, has 74 Umno divisions with him. He needs at least 58 nominations to be able to contest against the party President cum Prime Minister. But that is only if he wishes to contest the August 2008 party elections, which Abdullah is trying to postpone till 2009.
August 2008 is too late. 2009 even later. By then Anwar may already be Prime Minister. So Tengku Razaleigh can't afford to wait till August. He must move now. And, on 4 April 2008, Tengku Razaleigh is organising a rally at his home base in Gua Musang. If he can get more than 100 Umno divisions to attend his rally, then he can push for an EGM on 11 May 2008 whereby the party constitution can be amended to allow the 'normal' two-nomination-only to contest, just like what it is for all the other positions -- plus he probably can get a vote of no confidence against the party president passed as well.
Yes, it is certainly going to be a close race. Tengku Razaleigh will make his move on 4 April while Anwar can make his only after 14 April. Then, Anwar can make his second move after 7 May while Tengku Razaleigh will make his on 11 May.
It will be a photo-finish and a win by the nose. But whose nose will it be that will cross the finishing line first? Hey, I can't reveal all just yet. Khairy Jamaluddin and his boys are reading this too, you know. Let's first of all see if they succeed in postponing the August 2008 Umno party elections to 2009. If they fail, then Tengku Razaleigh is well-poised to become the next Prime Minister. If they succeed in postponing the party elections, well, then I suppose my money will have to be on Anwar. Did I not tell you that Malaysia is an exciting country?
Oh, and one more thing, observe what the Rulers have been doing these last three weeks since 8 March 2008 and what they will be doing these next few weeks. That should give you a good hint as to what's in store for us.